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UFC 282 SubStack Preview
Exclusive SubStack Preview of UFC 282 post coming out 12/09 and betting guide day-of!
UFC 282 Event Preview and Betting Slip
UFC 282 takes place at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, NV this Saturday, Dec. 3rd 2022. Former champion Jan Blachowicz takes on rising contender Magomed Ankalaev for the vacant Light Heavyweight title. Paddy The Baddy brings all the charisma, and Jared Gordon is a fun stylistic matchup for him. Even the late notice fight of Alex Morono versus Santiago Ponzinibbio is a very close fight on paper between two gritty strikers. Another fan-favorite in Darren Till takes on the always entertaining in-cage Drecicus Du Plessis in another stand-up affair. Even the main card opener is a high-level fight between two exciting fighters Bryce Mitchell and Ilia Topuria, but in totally different ways. The prelims have some bangers to get the crowd going as well. Betting wise, I see a lot less value than the ESPN Orlando card last week, but still wagered 3 units instead of usual 5. Let's look a little deeper at some main card fights, as well as some prelim fights likely to entertain.
Jan Blachowicz Vs Magomed Ankalaev For The Vacant Light Heavyweight (205lb) Championship
Jan seems to have had his shooting-star run, culminating in the Israel Adesanya win. Ankalaev is riding a 3 year long hot-streak, that’s about as hot as it gets. Light Heavyweight needs a reset with Jiri out for at least a year and Glover being a staple at the top for almost a decade. The UFC is hoping Ankalaev can bring in a new era of 205 lb stability, and therefore marketability. Jan has some paths to victory, such as landing in the clinch and the always present Polish power, but Ankalaev has a more diverse skill-set. Ankalaev is a good representation of 2022 MMA, and Jan was a relic of the past making the best of his run. Look for Ankalaev to pick Jan apart at range, with a risk being getting flatlined when over-extending with kicks. On the flip side, while Jan is likely the better striker in the clinch, Ankalaev has much better trips. The body lock war of attrition against the fence could play out frequently. I like Ankalaev, and like him In The Distance (ITD)
Paddy Pimblett Vs Jared Gordon
I have had my fill of Paddy The Baddy. So I view this fight with heavy bias.That being said, there is a very clear grappling path to victory for Paddy. While Gordon has shown good grappling, Paddy is great at finding the parts of your game that have fat and exploiting them the most. He's a very meticulous grappler, a bit of a drunk when striking. I like Paddy, but not at -250.
Santiago Ponzinibbio Vs Alex Morono
Scrappy strikers, good gas tanks, and late notice so both fighters will show natural abilities/tendencies more. This fight should deliver fireworks, with some crafty striking to look at post fight. An X-Factor will be Morono’s durability and leg-kicks will wear on Ponzi over time. The way Ponzi was slept by Leech, shares little overlap with how Morono strokes.
As a result, decision is very likely. I think it;s a 50/50 fight, so Morono is a decent live-dog at +155. Whether or not you bet, the fight should have juice.
Till Vs Du Plessis
Akin to Jan Blachowicz, Till had his star burn bright and fast, but appears to be petering out as well. Outside of a few good uppercuts and leg kicks, TIll was even out struck by Brunson prior to the finish. Du Plessis is coming off of an impressive victory over Brad Tavares, in which Du Plessis made changes over the fight and found more and more success as it went on. Till at his best was a striking specialist good at making use of his size, Du Plessis is a more decorated striker and stronger than Till. While unlikely to be a lopsided fight, I do expect Du Plessis to pull away in rounds two and three as Till stalls.
Bryce Mitchell Vs Ilia Topuria
Jair Rozenstruik Vs Chris Daukaus
Chris Curtis Vs Joaquin Buckley
***HAVE NOT ACTIVELY RE-WATCHED FIGHTS YET, VIBES BASED BETS ESSENTIALLY***
All odds based off of 12/08/22 Odds between 1000-1200 PST per bestfightodds.com
1 unit: Magomed Ankalaev: -285 To Win
Ankalaev appears to be modern MMA encapsulated. From the freak body, to diverse skill set, to ability to blend disciplined at range striking with absolute chaos exchanges. Jan even had trouble with Luke’s length and strength before seeing the hook window. I do think Jan ITD at +400 is good value. A whole extra bag on initial bet compared to +270 to win outright.
1 Unit: Du Plessis: -175 To Win
Better at what Till uses to thrive than Till is. While there is a window for Till to outpoint and frustrate Du Plessis, Du Plessis has shown he’s willing to just charge in and mix up what he’s throwing to break up the pattern. Such as Tavares immediately timing his straight entry and strikes, so Du Plessis started dipping more to one side or the other and throwing hooks. By end of round 2 Tavares was split open all over and never solved the outside and looping tactic. Till is a much better striker than Tavares, but Du Plessis still showed the ability to adjust slightly mid round, and build on it the next. Masvidal used that ability to it’s maximum potential in England.
Rozenstruik: -170 To Win
Rozenstruik doesn’t appear to cut the top 5 of heavyweight, but can continue to be a good gatekeeper to the top 10. This week Daukaus himself mentioned a move to 205 is in the future. While there is a chance Daukaus’s fast hands and ability to bite down lead to him sleeping Rozenstruik who was a questionable chin, the rest of the factors lean Rozenstruik. It is my least confident vibe-based bet, and would only do half a unit.
Full 3-Rd Party Tracked Bet Slip 12/09/22