UFC 295 Handicapping Preview
And an intro on why to bet in general (outside of addiction)
UFC 295 Bet-Slip
Alex Pereira Vs. Jiri Prochazka
🔒Prop: Fight Does Not Go The Distance (-550) 🔒
My Odds: (-650 to -700)
With a gap in my odds and current odds, even at -550 the prop is decent value. Pavlovich Aspinall is -1600 to not go the distance (or whatever the max - your book offers) as a comparison. Alex may defend the finish for 5 rounds while looking for his shot like the first MMA fight with Izzy. Outside of that, both fighters love throwing at openings and both have faced defensive fighters recently (Glover war, but lots of fundamental defense for Jiri. Jan was fun, but lots of mirroring each other in-between strikes for Alex) On top of the masterclass in finishing strikers, keep an eye on the clinch game. Jiri likely has an edge in throws and ground game, while Alex has some punishing dirty boxing and clinch-work. The fight is must watch.
Tom Aspinall Vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Aspinall | To Win | -125
My Odds: -195
If this fight was taking place at <=170 Aspinall would be a -300 favorite. At heavyweight, you always have to factor in the donk. The bonk. The big big bong. And Pavlovich is quite the thudder with a solid chin on him. Aspinall likes to test himself in the fire against every opponent, and if he fights like he did against Blaydes, Pavlovich may leave Aspinall looking at the ceiling. As time passes and the rounds go on, Aspinall’s well-rounded game should take hold. Aspinall’s dynamic striking and speed advantage allows for him to chip away at Pavlovich’s base and body on the feet. As Pavlovich wears, Aspinall can enter clinches and takedowns easier. That will allow for Aspinall to work his biggest advantages: Ground game and fight sense. Another guaranteed banger on a massively improved card over the original. Squash match for a fake title that won’t be defended? No thank you. The two best heavyweights in the UFC seeing who will becoming the new champion that actually defends? Yes please. This is not a lock like Alex/Jiri Doesn’t go distance, but does seem like good value at the price.
Start Setting Your Own Odds
As you see fights announced or find out about them without the odds being listed, think about what you’d price it at it. Don’t necessarily follow through on every gap you see. But if you start thinking about how likely for each party is each outcome and turning that into a +/- odds, you’ll become much more well-rounded in your approach to betting and how books make their odds (along with risk, exposure, enticement, etc. but we don’t have to worry about that)
Why -550 Can Be Good Value (math)
You bet because you want more money than you have now. You also want that money in a very short time frame. If you mitigate loss by adding fun ($20 bucks on a fight that when you watch creates $15 of enjoyment increase is really a loss of $20) you are mostly playing with house money. So why give it right back to the house?
Inflation
You can get sketchy short-term treasury notes for 5% return. That’s the financial value benchmark you want to compare to. The fun is value, but incredibly subjective.
-550 odds = 18% return
Is it as guaranteed as the US Treasury? Not at all, which is why you need more return on it.
18 / 5 = 3.6
You’re getting 3.6 times the return for the increased risk.
Aspinall Pavlovich going the distance at -1600?
-1600 Odds = 6% Return
Is it only 20% more risky? No, it takes on much more risk.
TLDR: Set your own odds before checking books to get a better understanding of them overall. Set your own goals with betting and manage risk accordingly.
My Stuff:
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